Dear Colleagues –
The start of 2025 has brought a whirlwind of news, moving at a pace that’s hard to keep up with. And while not all the headlines are good, I’ve been making a deliberate effort to focus on the bright spots – moments of postsecondary progress and success that may easily get overlooked in the flurry of stories (like the improved FAFSA). And with that in mind, I wanted to share and celebrate a few encouraging updates.
- Freshman enrollment is actually on the rise: In October 2024, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSC) reported a 5% decline in first-year college enrollments, marking the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, earlier this month, the NSC acknowledged a methodological error in their initial analysis: many incoming first-year students had been misclassified as dual-enrolled high school students. Upon correcting this mistake, the revised data revealed that first-year enrollment increased 5.5% for first-time, first-year students. And overall, total postsecondary enrollment rose by 4.5%, returning to pre-pandemic levels. This growth was driven in part by students over 21 and the data shows significant gains in community college enrollments. For more on the latest enrollment data check out these stories from Inside Higher Ed and The Chronicle of Higher Ed.
- Persistence and retention rates are also on the rise: Before the pandemic, college persistence and retention rates were on the decline, and those numbers took an even bigger hit in the height of Covid as many colleges and universities closed their physical campuses and some Americans reevaluated their plans to pursue postsecondary education. But the latest data available (from summer 2024) shows persistence and retention rose for the second year in a row to the highest rate in a decade. On persistence, first-year students who enrolled in fall 2022 increased to 76.5% from 75.7% (up 0.8 percentage points). And retention for the same cohort of students rose to 68.2% (up 1 percentage point from the year prior). There are myriad hurdles students face in their pursuit of higher ed and getting students in the door is the first piece of the puzzle. Helping to ensure they have the support necessary to keep showing up and inching closer and closer to graduation is critical to their success.
- Progress on college affordability: A new analysis from McKinsey (linked below in the ‘what we’re reading’ section) challenges the dominant media headlines that college costs are more expensive than ever. Yes, some institutions have historically high tuition rates, and some students are accruing debt that they struggle to pay back, but just like with every policy conversation, it’s nuanced and it’s not the whole story. The share of household income spent on college has declined, student debt levels have stabilized, and loan default rates have dropped. While college remains costly, it can only provide a strong return on investment (especially when students and families are armed with data to help inform their decision-making about where to pursue a degree). The question now is whether the higher ed sector has started to bend the affordability curve for good.
As we reflect on these bright spots, it's important to remember that progress doesn't always look like a big, sudden shift. Sometimes it trickles in quietly, almost unnoticed, and sometimes it takes years to start moving the needle. But it’s still a sign that the work we do every day is making a difference for students. Whether it’s a small success or a larger achievement, every step forward counts. I’d love to hear about the bright spots in your work too. Feel free to share them with me on LinkedIn, and let’s keep celebrating the progress we’re all contributing to.
Regards,
Patrick Methvin,
Director, Postsecondary Success
What we’re reading
- OPINION: College is worth it for most students, but its benefits are not equitable.
The evidence continues to show that postsecondary education remains to be a smart choice for most students, but the data also show that the benefits of a college education are not equal – where outcomes differ based on race, gender, socioeconomic background, and the type of institution. In a new opinion piece from Diane Cheng, the vice president of research and policy at the Institute for Higher Education Policy (IHEP), she makes the case that strengthening the value of higher education requires policymakers at the federal and state level to focus on creating policies and allocating funding to improve affordability and support students in getting across the finish line.
- Making college more affordable
A recent opinion piece in The New York Times highlights the challenges students from low-income backgrounds face in affording higher education, even with financial aid programs like Pell Grants. The rising costs of tuition and living expenses have outpaced the amount of aid offered through Pell, making it difficult for these students to cover the full cost of college. Increasing the maximum Pell Grant award and expanding eligibility would help bridge the financial gap and make higher education more accessible for more students.
- Funding underfunded colleges and universities
Washington Monthly kicked off 2025 with a suite of ideas to help the working class. They’re all interesting and worth a read, but one stood out: rather than obsessing over wealthy elite universities that historically educate a select group of students, invest in underfunded postsecondary institutions that educate most Americans.
- Affording a college degree: Is the cost curve bending?
As mentioned above, a new analysis from McKinsey highlights how recent data trends indicate some improvements in the affordability of four-year college degrees. Download the full report (by creating a free account)