Dear colleagues—
As 2025 winds down, I’ve been thinking about the big-picture shifts reshaping higher education and how institutions are responding. If you zoom out far enough, the existential challenges are hard to ignore: rising skepticism about college value, affordability gaps, and K-12 academic recovery that hasn’t kept pace.
But within those challenges, we’re also seeing signs of progress—institutions, systems, and policies adjusting in real time to meet this moment. It’s not fast or flashy work, but it’s real. And it gives me reason to be hopeful heading into 2026.
Here are four trends from 2025 that speak to how the field is responding to some of higher ed’s biggest questions:
- Demographic shifts are real AND institutions are evolving to meet them.
The “enrollment cliff” is already underway, with fewer traditional-age students entering college (nearly 40% of undergrads are over 25, most work while enrolled, and many are raising families). But institutions that are expanding access for adults and returning learners are seeing encouraging gains. This spring, national college enrollment grew by 3.2%, with community colleges up 5.4%, and first-year persistence reaching a 10-year high. At the same time, institutions are rethinking the student experience to reflect the students they serve. Western Governors University, which now enrolls more than 180,000 students (most of them working adults), continues to grow. And Austin Community College has created more flexible course options, career-aligned credentials, and redesigned advising for adult learners. The common thread? Flexible, affordable pathways designed to match the needs of today’s students. - Value is under the microscope AND progress means helping more students finish and connect to careers.
The public conversation around higher ed’s value isn’t going away, and it shouldn’t. Helping more students’ complete degrees and transition into good jobs is essential to rebuilding trust. Recent data show that persistence and retention are trending up, and institutions are contributing toward that growth. At California State University, Fresno, they are pairing academic programs with real-world experience and local labor market need, making the university a driver of both upward mobility and regional economic growth. And national partners like the Aspen Institute’s College Excellence Program are helping define what postsecondary value should look like and working directly with colleges to strengthen student outcomes, close achievement gaps, and ensure that credentials lead to meaningful careers. - Affordability remains a barrier AND FAFSA access and completion is improving.
The cost of colleges is still one of the biggest hurdles for students and families but this year we saw a meaningful rebound in access to aid. After a rocky rollout in 2024, this year’s FAFSA cycle saw significant improvement. By the end of the cycle, roughly 54% of high school seniors nationwide had completed the FAFSA—up 17.5% from the year prior. And states with universal FAFSA policies, like Louisiana, Texas, and California, posted some of the highest completion rates. In California, for example, FAFSA and state aid application completion reached 65.7%, a nearly 7-point gain over the previous year—underscoring how state-level action can help close achievement gaps and connect more students to financial aid. - Student preparation is uneven AND dual enrollment is creating momentum.
With persistent concerns about academic recovery and lagging readiness, as seen in NAEP and PISA results, dual enrollment is one of the most effective tools we have for accelerating students into college-level work. Drawing on a decade of research, a new book from the Community College Research Center (CCRC) shows that students who participate in dual enrollment are more likely to enroll in college and complete a credential. Among high school graduates in 2011, 81% of dual enrollment students enrolled in college within a year, compared to 63% of non-dual enrollees. Dual enrollment also boosted completion rates—50% earned a credential within four years, compared to 44% of their peers. Participation has more than doubled over the past decade, reaching over 1.5 million students nationally. States and systems are continuing to scale these programs by improving credit transfer, aligning dual enrollment with high-value credentials, and strengthening advising and support.
These challenges aren’t going away, but neither is the progress we’re seeing in response. Institutions are making hard, necessary changes to reflect who today’s students are and what they need. And looking ahead, we expect to see even more innovation—both from existing institutions and new models—emerge in 2026.
I’m grateful for the work we’ve seen this year and even more for the people driving it. Here's to carrying that energy into 2026, with clarity about what’s working and renewed commitment to the students we’re here to serve.
Regards,
Patrick Methvin,
Director, Postsecondary Success
Quick takes
A smarter path forward on college accountability
In a new opinion piece, Beth Akers from The American Enterprise Institute and Robert Shireman from The Century Foundation, lay out a bipartisan approach to postsecondary accountability—one that focuses on outcomes rather than inputs. The authors call for policies that reward institutions delivering real value for students and protect them from poor-performing programs.
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In The Hechinger Report, a student reflects on earning an associate degree while still in high school—and how that early access to college helped him save time, reduce debt, and build confidence for what’s next. His story is a powerful reminder of the life-changing potential of dual enrollment programs.
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